This was really a great idea. It sounds like somebody just wanted to cause trouble before the thing even got off the ground; you didn't even hear anything about this until a couple of senators announced they were shocked, absolutely shocked, to hear that DARPA was thinking of launching a public futures market on middle east terror possibilities (in reality, it sounds as if it would have been more of a global geopolitical dramatic events futures market, as things like north korean ballistic missile launches seemed to be in the mix, but middle east terror market sounds better, particularly if you want to decry it in front of the media). Anyway, haven't futures markets always been particularly good at, well, fairly accurately predicting the future? maybe predicting is too strong...let's say they've been very good indicators of reality. I'm not sure exactly what everybody thinks was such a bad idea about this. Perhaps it's morbid if you've got people in there "betting" that the prime minister of Israel is assassinated, but don't people discuss these matters in offices and in public spaces anyhow? don't we discuss everything from the simple "you know, they're not going to find bin laden", to, in some circles, the very obscure "you know, what people don't think about is, what if the Kurds rise up against a sharia government in iraq, and Iran steps in to defend the shiite majority, then won't the turks and iranians come at the kurds from both sides?" eventually, you will have some market makers that offer possible events that the market begins to believe make a lot of sense and that would tip off the pentagon, or better, everybody, that this type of event was plausible or even probable? to finish the point, if pre 9/11, we'd had a futures market that indicated there was a lot of money riding on terrorists hijacking planes and slamming them into buildings, would it have done anything to possibly cause companies or governments or citizens to behave differently prior to the actual event?
I suppose the unfortunate truth is that the market would just degrade quickly into a thoughtless "dead pool" where people bet on who would get murdered next, and that would indeed be both morbid and not really helpful, but in concept, i thought it was actually a pretty creative approach to a massively complex problem!
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It's a decision that's "pure political," said Bill Adkins, with Neoteric Technologies, which has a Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or Darpa, grant to design markets trading on the future of hybrid electric vehicles and the spread of SARS. Senators expressed concerns when they discovered the PAM project, an effort to speculate on possible events in the Middle East -- like the overthrow of Jordan's monarchy or the assassination of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat -- as if they were stocks. The higher the price, the theory goes, the more likely the incident. "The idea of a federal betting parlor on atrocities and terrorism is ridiculous and it's grotesque," fumed Wyden.
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